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Vol. 1, Number 2, June/December 2003

Cross Hedging Jet Fuel on the Singapore Spot Market
Ephraim Clark, Mark Tan and Radu Tunaru
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
In this paper we test for the most effective cross hedging instrument for the Singapore spot market in jet fuel over the period February 4, 1997 to August 21, 2001. Our results are mixed. We find that the heating oil contract is the best in-sample cross-hedging instrument. It has the highest correlation with the spot price and gives the best regression results. However, after correcting for serial correlation, the goodness of fit measured by R2 is rather low. Out of sample results are weak for all models and ambiguous with respect to the heating oil contract.

Market Efficiency and Integration: An Examination of Indian Stock Market
Chandra Shekhar Bhatnagar
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
This paper examines the efficiency and integration of the Indian stock market. The weak form of efficiency has been tested by studying the stationarity characteristics of theMSCI Stock Price Index of India. For testing the semi-strong form of efficiency and integration of the Indian Stock Market with the macro phenomenon of emerging stock markets of the world, the causality between the MSCI Stock Price Index of India and the MSCI EMF Index has been studied. The results point out that the Indian Stock Market is efficient in its weak sense. However, the same is not true for the semi-strong form of market efficiency. Therefore, the utility of a forecasting model having the macro phenomenon (MSCI EMF Index in the present case) as a forecasting variable cannot be ruled out.

Recent Trends in Global FDI Flows: Implications for the 21st Century
Chiaku Chukwuogor Ndu
Eastern Connecticut State University
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
This paper examines recent global trends of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and the benefits derivable by the recipient countries. Some of The developed countries of the West, Japan and China are the greatest recipients of FDI flows. There has been dramatic increase in FDI flows to developing countries in Asia, Latin America and the transition countries in Europe. In general developing countries are still unable to attract significant FDI. Africa’s share of the FDI flows though slightly on the increase has been abysmally low. The identifiable reasons for this trend were highlighted. To achieve a more balance flow of FDI in the 21st century, a concerted effort should be made by international organizations, leading world government, multinational enterprises and governments of developing economies, through dialogue and negotiations to encourage multinational enterprises to diversify their investments across developing economies otherwise marginalized by globalization and liberalization.

Productivity and Stock Returns: 1951 - 2002
A.M. Parhizgari & Abe Aburachis
Florida International University Miami, USA
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
There is considerable concern whether the decline in stock market returns will eventually exert negative changes in the productivity data. This paper examines the long run, or the equilibrium, relationship between productivity and stock returns for the 1951-2002 period. It introduces the notion of equilibrium as represented by the co-movements of economic variables in the long run. This notion is viewed to be broader than the economic theory definition of equilibrium that usually means market clearance. Acknowledging that structural changes in economic time series are hard to detect, an alternative approach employing pair-wise and multifactor cointegration along with VAR modeling is employed. Within this framework, the relationships among productivity, stock prices (returns), investment, and corporate cash flows are pair-wise and jointly investigated. The results indicate that productivity and stock prices share a common trend; so do the stock prices and corporate net cash flows. The long-run common trend between investment and stock prices on the other hand is not so clear. The implications of these results for investors and policy-makers are discussed.

Insider Trading Around ESOP Announcements: Wealth Effect vs. Control Effect
Zahid Iqbal
Texas Southern University
Glenn N. Pettengill
Emporia State University
Shekar Shetty
Western New England University
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
Following the enactment of ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act) in 1974, employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) have become a popular form of employee compensation among U.S. companies. The introduction of an ESOP has important implications for management interest that should encourage insiders buying activity. This paper documents that unusual insider buying activity has indeed resulted from the introduction of an ESOP. Further we examine two competing explanations, the wealth hypothesis and the control hypothesis, for the increase in insiders buying activity. We conclude that insiders buying activity is primarily motivated by control considerations.

The Extended Black-Scholes Model with-LAGS-and “Hedging Errors”
Mondher Bellalah
University of Paris-Dauphine
Introduction Ɩ Full Text
The Black-Scholes model is derived under the assumption that heding is done instantaneously. In practice, there is a “small” time that elapses between buying or selling the option and hedging using the underlying asset. Under the following assumptions used in the standard Black-Scholes analysis, the value of the option will depend only on the price of the underlying asset S, time t and on other Variables assumed constants. These assumptions or “ideal conditions” as expressed by Black-Scholes are the following.
  • The option us European,
  • The short term interest rate is known,
  • The underlying asset follows a random walk with a variance rate proportional to the stock price. It pays no dividends or other distributions.
  • There is no transaction costs and short selling is allowed, i.e. an investment can sell a security that he does not own.
  • Trading takes place continuously and the standard form of the capital market model holds at each instant.
The last assumption can be modified because in practice, trading does not take place in-stantaneouly and simultaneously in the option and the underlying asset when implementing the hedging strategy. We will modify this assumption to account for the “lag”. The lag corresponds to the elapsed time between buying or selling the option and buying or selling - delta units of the underlying assets. The main attractions of the Black-Scholes model are that their formula is a function of “observable” variables and that the model can be extended to the pricing of any type of option. All the assumptions are conserved except the last one.

Outsider Estimation of the Fair Value of Bank Stocks: Computational and Conceptual Issues
Mohamed Ariff and Lina Suranto
Monash University

Abstract Ɩ Full Text

This paper attempts to fill a void in the finance literature by reporting the reliability of theoretical valuation models against the market values of banking corporations. The dividend, operating cash flows and the free cash flow valuation approaches are operationalised to estimate fair values of banks. These values are then compared with market values. This results, using the Theil’s U-coefficient, show that the operating cash flow approach provides estimates that are better than the naïve model estimates. The other two approaches produced results no better than the naïve model. A probable reason for the poor performance of the free cash flow approach is suggested. Outsider’s estimation of investment values needed for free cash flow calculation is likely to introduce serious errors irrespective of the theoretical bases of models widely used in the industry.

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