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Vol. 8, Number 4, Dec 2011

The Impact of Manipulation in Internet Stock Message Boards
Jean-Yves Delort, Bavani Arunasalam, Henry Leung and Maria Milosavljevic
Google, Capital Markets CRC Ltd, University of Sydney and Australian Government Office, Canberra
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
Internet message boards are often used to spread information in order to manipulate financial markets. Although this hypothesis is supported by many cases reported in the literature and in the media, the real impact of manipulation in online forums on financial markets remains an open question. This paper is on the effect of manipulation in internet stock message boards on financial markets by employing a unique corpus of moderated messages to investigate market manipulation. Internet message board administrators use the process of moderation to restrict market manipulation. We find that manual supervision of stock message boards by moderators does not effectively protect Internet users against manipulation. By focusing on messages that have been moderated as manipulative due to ramping, we show ramping is positively related to market returns, volatility and volume. Stocks with higher turnover, lower price level, lower market capitalization and higher volatility are more common targets of ramping.
Keywords: Ramping, market manipulation, internet stock message boards, event study
JEL Classification: D82, G14, G22

Mergers and Acquisitions: The Nigerian Banking Consolidation Program
1Chukwuma Agu, 2Olajide, 3Divine Ikenwilo and 4Anthony Orji
African Institute for Applied Economics Nigeria, 2University of Aberdeen Scotland and University of Nigeria Nsukka
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
This paper examines the determinants of the exit behaviour of banks in the Nigerian consolidation program during July 2004 and December 2005. We conceptualise the exit process in a flexible bivariate competing risks model to examine the importance of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors for both merged banks and failed banks jointly. The preliminary results suggest that bank-specific characteristics mattered more for preventing bank failure than they did for emergence of the M&A banks. Second, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s assistance was highly influential in preventing bank failure, and, for banks that benefited, the assistance increased their probability of being merged or acquired. Also, we found no strong evidence suggesting that the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and industry-specific factors had influenced exit behaviour of banks during the consolidation exercise. We found evidence of structural dependence between failure and merger and acquisition hazards induced by CBN incentive.
Keywords: Bank merger and acquisition, Nigeria, duration analysis
JEL Classification: C41, G21, G34, N27
Remittances and Banking Sector Development in South Asia
Abdullah M Noman and Gazi S Uddin
University of New Orleans, United States and Carleton University, Canada
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
The paper investigates the interaction among foreign remittance, banking sector development and GDP in four South Asian nations that export huge pools of labour abroad. Multivariate Granger causality tests, based on error correction models, are employed with data spanning from 1976 to 2005. A key finding of the paper is that remittances and banking sector development influence per capita income in all four South Asian nations. In addition, interactions among the variables are also examined in a panel setting. As in individual country analyses, both remittance and banking sector development have positive and significant influences on the national income of South Asian countries. On the other hand, neither domestic products nor advancement in banking sector have significant impact on the remittance flows. This is new findings of the linkage between remittances and economic development, which may also be evident for countries exporting labour pools.
Keywords: Remittances, financial development, south asia, panel causality
JEL Classification: C32, F24, O16

The Contagion from the 2007-09 US Stock Market Crash
Arnulfo M. Castellanos, Francisco S. Vargas and Luis G. Rentería
Universidad de Sonora, Mexico
Abstract Ɩ Full Text
The global financial crisis that took place during the period 2007-09 had its most prominent manifestation in the general stock market crash. This could be studied from the perspective of financial contagion, using a mathematical tool known as wavelets. This paper aims to assess the impact of the US stock market crash on the other stock markets all over the world. As an initial point the assumption that the former was the epicenter of the global financial crisis stands out. In order to determine the existence of differentiated impacts that show the presence of inertial factors in different stock exchange markets, a filtering technique is used on stock market indexes to assess such impacts. The data series are worked out on different time scales in order to identify short and long term effects.
Keywords: Contagion, global stock market crash, united states, wavelets
JEL Classification: G01, G15, G12, F36

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